Curated By: Shankhyaneel Sarkar
Last Updated: May 08, 2023, 12:33 IST
Washington/Beijing/Kyiv/Moscow
A Ukrainian soldier smokes in a shelter at a front line near the city of Bakhmut, Ukraine (Image: Reuters)
Western military industry’s difficulties in supplying arms, Ukraine army’s high attrition rates and a desire to test China’s intentions could see global leaders nudge the Kremlin and Kyiv to push for a truce.
The US believes that Russia and Ukraine can be brought to the negotiating table following the latter’s spring offensive and the Western world which was so long sceptical of China feels that Beijing can help bring Russia to the table, the Wall Street Journal said in a report.
The newspaper said that Washington is shifting its stance and aligning closer with European allies who want the conflict to end or to at least reduce from its current degree. The US has been sceptical of China and US secretary of state Antony Blinken publicly expressed cautious optimism regarding China’s role in defusing the conflict.
The Wall Street Journal said that the belief is based on the fact that neither Ukraine nor Russia have the ability to continue fighting indefinitely and whether China’s intentions related to peace in Ukraine are genuine or not should be tested. However, the US still remains sceptical that Russia may not be willing to negotiate a cease-fire under Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The report also pointed out that French President Emmanuel Macron remains keen on pushing Kyiv to initiate talks with Ukraine after the spring offensive.
However, it should be noted that France, the UK, the US, Germany and other allies of Ukraine have said they will continue to support Ukraine, in every manner, including sending more military support if required.
The plan is to strengthen Ukraine’s bargaining position in the negotiating table if truce talks happen.
The report citing European officials pointed out that the key officials on the US National Security Council favour the negotiations but the US State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) want to see how the offensive turns out before turning to diplomacy, the Wall Street Journal said.
The report citing European officials who are familiar with the discussions their respective leaders have had with the US President Joe Biden said that Biden could attempt to facilitate talks between Kyiv and the Kremlin once the Ukrainian offensive achieves its objectives.
The spring counteroffensive aims to regain important territory in the south and the report said that the results will be interpreted as a success even if Russia retains large areas its forces have occupied.
There are also concerns on both sides of the Atlantic that the scale of support provided by the allies to Ukraine for the coming push will be hard to match in the future if the war ends up being a stalemate. The Western industrial capacity is failing to meet its own demands as it supports Ukraine, the report said citing industry leaders, the Wall Street Journal said.
The report pointed out that the attrition rates of troops and materiel in Ukraine is high and has caused concern among European officials.
Biden is likely to nudge Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky to entertain ceasefire talks in the coming months.
However, not all allies agree on these plans. Poland and the Baltic nations and other smaller nations and the UK feel that Ukraine needs more time even if the spring counteroffensive does not achieve its desired objectives.
The US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the US Congress that Putin believes “time is working in his favour” despite scaling back his objectives and focusing on consolidating control in the eastern, southern and southeastern belt of Ukraine and remains affixed on his demand that Ukraine should never join NATO, the Wall Street Journal said.
Meanwhile, European officials believe that a ceasefire agreement would involve China as a guarantor country. China has called for peace talks but it does not view Putin as the aggressor. French President Macron during his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping urged China to play a pivotal role in the possible peace talks and Zelensky also said that any peace talks must include Biden and Xi Jinping.
Europe is confident that China wants to be involved in the ceasefire talks and the US secretary of state Antony Blinken earlier this week also welcomed any initiative that brings durable peace but until now the US and its European allies felt China was not a reliable party given its unwavering support to Russia and Putin, the Wall Street Journal said.
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